• August 2014

The Future of Work

What will “work” look like in 2020? What jobs will your kids have? Are they learning what they’ll need to know in school? And what will be the future of entrepreneurship? These are some of the questions we tackle in the August 2014 issue of BeInkandescent.com.

For insights, we turn to two of our favorite futurists—Dr. Andy Hines and Chris Carbone. We all worked together years ago when they headed up the DC-based futurist think tank Social Technologies. Today, Hines runs the Futures Studies program at the University of Houston, and Carbone works for an international futurist firm.

What does a futurist do, exactly? “My job as a futurist is to track international business and consumer trends by reading and analyzing just about anything I can get my hands on,” Carbone explains. “As a result, futurists are able to forecast what life might look like around the bend.”

Pretty cool, right? We think so, and so do our columnists, who in this issue share insights into the future of their industries—including Hiring expert Barbara Mitchell, Wealth columnist CFP Rita Cheng, and our Public Speaking specialists Hilary Blair and Robin Miller. And if you’re a business owner who wonders how technology is changing the advertising industry, turn to the Futurist column, in which Derek Woodgate illuminates the future of advertising.

Plus, in our Self-Help column you’ll find the latest research on the health benefits of coffee. Good news, and something to fuel us as we ponder the future of work.

Also in this issue, we are pleased to launch three new columns:

  • Intuition Rules features insights on how you can use your innate intuition to help guide your choices in business, and in your life. In this month’s spotlight, our managing editor, Kathleen McCarthy, interviews intuitive guide Eliel Fionn.

We leave you with this parting thought from Abraham Lincoln, who said: “The best thing about the future is that it comes one day at a time.”

Here’s to your incredible, indelible, Inkandescent success! — Hope Katz Gibbs, publisher • Illustration by Michael Gibbs

Andy Hines and Chris Carbone on the Future of Work

COVER STORY: AUGUST 2014

What Will Work Look Like in 2020 and Beyond?

Futurists Andy Hines and Chris Carbone Share Insights

By Hope Katz Gibbs
Publisher, Be Inkandescent

What might surprise us about the nature of work in the future?

According to Dr. Andy Hines, a futurist and professor at the University of Houston who heads up the country’s largest foresight program, several early signs indicate trends that could result in dramatic changes in the future.

“As professional futurists, my colleagues and I are continually scanning the external environment for signals of change,” explains Hines, who has pulled together a dozen of these signals, which may not yet be on the radar screens of many organizations.

The dozen surprises listed here have been emerging piecemeal—they appear in small pockets and are not widespread. Hines believes “things will get really interesting in the decade ahead, however, as most of them will have a reinforcing influence on one another, which could result in a fairly sweeping transformation.”

How can you prepare for what’s on the horizon?

“By studying the changes that are occurring now and trying to understand their significance for the future, organizations will be able to spot opportunities to proactively shape their future,” he insists. “These trends emerge primarily from issues affecting knowledge work, and will most likely appear first in affluent nations.”

Hines’ dozen surprises for the future are listed below. Scroll down to discover his big ideas. And for more details, click here to download his comprehensive analysis of the future of work.

Given all these changes, what jobs will you—and your kids—have in 2020 and beyond? That’s the million-dollar question that Futurist Chris Carbone helps us understand.

Like Hines, Carbone’s job as a futurist is to track international business and consumer trends by reading and analyzing just about anything he can get his hands on. As a result, he is able to forecast what life might look like around the bend.

Indeed, the future of work is one of the hottest trends that he is studying.

“Like the economy, it is one of the big mysteries that keeps us all up at night,” Carbone says. “And research shows work will look much different in 2020, whether judged by the types of computing devices we use on the job, where we work, or the way we collaborate with our coworkers.”

Following are two trends that Carbone is tracking.

  • For starters, the types of jobs that people hold will change. “There will be careers that don’t even exist today—just as there were no ‘social media strategists’ or ‘mobile app developers’ a few short years ago,” Carbone observes.
  • That said, a great many of the jobs that will be held in 2020 are here already. “There’s a simple way to learn what they are by tapping into the wonderful world of government statistics,” he says. “Now this may not sound like the most thrilling thing to do on a Friday night, and to save you the trouble, we’ve combed through the most recent employment projections.” The projections for 2010-2020 are from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

Here’s why the BLS does what it does. The BLS creates these long-term projections to help educators, counselors, and policymakers plan for the needs of the future workforce.

“These projections can also offer insight to parents, students, career-changers, and anyone who—like me,” Carbone says—knows that “there’s a pretty solid chance that come 2020:

  1. They’re not going to be independently wealthy, and
  2. They’re still going to want and need to be working.”

So what can we say about the careers of 2020 by looking at the most recent BLS data? Click here to find out.

Andy Hines: A Dozen Surprises About the Future of Work

  1. Hey, that’s cheating. Augmented or enhanced human characteristics will present challenges for organizations and individual talent.
  2. Emerging markets rewrite the rules of work and work culture. As emerging markets improve their positions, they will influence the culture of work.
  3. Intelligence shows up in unusual places. Information technology (IT) will create new forms of intelligence that will migrate into infrastructure, devices—or persons (wearables or implants), or all of the above.
  4. Work now, get paid later … maybe. Do the work and get paid according to what the customer thinks it is worth (e.g., the Radiohead model, named after the English alternative rock band that released a digital form of one of its albums for free and asked customers to pay what they thought it was worth).
  5. Time- or project-based employment contracts begin to mainstream. While currently in the domain of the elite athletes and actors, this will become a mainstream practice.
  6. Fairness becomes impossible. The need to customize and personalize to attract talent will make across-the-board, same-for-everyone types of policies increasingly untenable.
  7. Workers prefer working to live instead of living to work. Work will be a shrinking portion of time—and even incomes—in affluent nations.
  8. Work increasingly becomes a thing you do instead of a place you go. Work will be increasingly thought of as a process that happens wherever and whenever.
  9. Employer-provided training disappears. As organizations become increasingly reluctant to invest in training, new ways will be devised for organizations to acquire the talent and skills they need.
  10. “Nearsourcing” will become preferable to outsourcing. Growing shipping costs and the complexity of global supply chains will lead to a preference for local and in-house talent.
  11. Work in the happiness society changes metrics. Work as a source of fulfillment will influence a shift in measures from GDP (gross domestic product) to GDH (gross domestic happiness).
  12. Meet the new boss. As Boomers approach retirement, GenX and GenY—digital natives with different expectations, goals, and work styles—will reshape leadership and work.

Don’t stop now! Click here to read Carbone’s insights into Jobs to 2020 and Beyond.

Futurist Chris Carbone Provides Insight Into Jobs: 2020 and Beyond

By Chris Carbone
Futurist

Where will you work in 2020? That’s the million-dollar question. In fact, the future of work is one of the hottest trends I am studying. Like the economy, it is one of the big mysteries that keeps us all up at night.

As a futurist, my job is to track international business and consumer trends by reading and analyzing just about anything I can get my hands on. The goal is to determine what the world might look like five, 10, and 20 years down the pike, and by tracking what’s going on today, my colleagues and I are able to forecast what life might look like around the bend.

In fact, my research shows that work will look much different in 2020, whether judged by the types of computing devices we use on the job, where we work, or the way we collaborate with our coworkers. Following are some of the trends that I am seeing.

For starters, the types of jobs that people hold will change.

Indeed, there will be careers that don’t even exist today—just as there were no “social media strategists” or “mobile app developers” a few short years ago.

That said, a great many of the jobs that will be held in 2020 are here today—and there’s a simple way to learn what they are by tapping into the wonderful world of government statistics.

Now, this may not sound like the most thrilling thing to do on a Friday night, and to save you the trouble, we’ve combed through the most recent employment projections for 2010-2020 developed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

The BLS creates these long-term projections to help educators, counselors, and policymakers plan for the needs of the future workforce. These projections can also offer insight to parents, students, career-changers, and anyone who—like me—knows that there’s a pretty solid chance that come 2020, they’re 1) not going to be independently wealthy, and 2) are still going to want and need to be working.

So what can we say about the careers of 2020 by looking at the most recent BLS data?

1. Let’s start with the good news: There will be millions of jobs to be had.

The BLS projects that there will be nearly 55 million job openings during the decade from 2010-2020. About 34 million of these jobs will come from the need to replace workers who retire or leave their job for another job or to return to school, etc., and nearly 21 million will come from new jobs that will be created during the decade.

(These projections assume a “full employment” economy in 2020 with unemployment of 5.2 percent, a welcome change from the current 6.1 percent in June, and a big improvement over the 10.0 percent rate in October 2009, according to the BLS.)

2. To find the jobs, follow our changing society, and the economy.

The jobs that will be plentiful in 2020 reflect some of the basic changes underway in US society and the economy, such as the aging of the population (especially the huge wave of Baby Boomers), a continued shift toward services and knowledge work, the increasingly important role that science and technology play in our lives, and the continued recovery of construction and other sectors that were hit hard by the Great Recession.

Research from the business community suggests a similar future. Researchers at McKinsey & Company, for example, forecast that six sectors will account for up to 85 percent of the new jobs created through 2020. They are health care, business services, leisure and hospitality, construction, retail, and certain types of manufacturing jobs.

3. Business jobs will remain attractive.

There will be some 5.1 million job openings in management, business, and finance through 2020 due to growth and replacement needs. Think of jobs such as company executives and managers, operations and HR managers, financial analysts, accountants and auditors, and advertising positions.

As a whole, this class of jobs will grow more slowly (11.5%) than total employment (14.3%) between 2010-2020, but with the median annual salaries for many of these jobs ranging into the $70,000s, $80,000s, and well beyond into six figures, this will continue to be an attractive category of jobs.

Some jobs will grow much faster than the management, business, and finance category’s 11.5 percent. This includes market research analysts and marketing specialists (42%), personal financial advisors (32%), social service managers (27%), and managers of health services (22%).

One real surprise in the data is that the number of meeting, convention, and event planners was projected to rise by nearly 44 percent by 2020, resulting in 31,000 new jobs and 45,000 total job openings.

While not huge numbers, the growth rate makes it the fastest growing job in management, business, and finance in the coming years. Clearly, face-to-face still matters, even as social networking and our “digital lives” become more important.

4. Find your future with STEM jobs (science, technology, engineering, and math).

Science and technology will continue to have dramatic impacts on our economy and society in the coming decade—and as we increasingly rely more on complex systems, and digital and genetic technologies of all types, the prospect for computer, engineering, and science jobs will be strong.

This class of jobs will grow by 17 percent through 2020, faster than the job market overall (14.3%). There will be 2.8 million job openings in this category due to growth and replacement needs through 2020. This will include many high-paying positions such as software developers and programmers ($85K median wage), statisticians ($73K median wage), chemical engineers ($90K median wage), psychologists ($68K median wage), and urban planners ($63K median wage).

Which occupation in this category will offer the most jobs? Given the importance of information technology in our work and personal lives, it should come as no surprise that it’s software developers and programmers.

There will be some 494,000 job openings for software developers and programmers through 2020 (about 314,000 new jobs and 180,000 jobs from replacement needs). For perspective, consider how this compares to one of the classic, go-to professional jobs of the past couple decades: attorneys.

In raw numbers, there will be more than two times as many job openings for software developers and programmers (494,000) as there are for lawyers (212,000) this decade. And in terms of percent growth, the number of new jobs for lawyers will grow more slowly than total employment (10% vs. 14.3%, respectively), while the number of computer jobs grows by 22 percent through 2020.

Which of the STEM jobs does the BLS see as growing the fastest this decade? The number of positions for biomedical engineers will rise from 15,700 to 25,400 by between 2010 and 2020, a jump of 62 percent. While not a huge raw number, the percent change is telling. For example, consider that the growth rate for chemical engineers will only be 6 percent during these same years. If I were a young student with a general interest in a STEM job, I know one career that I’d be looking into seriously. …

5. Teach and train the next generation.

There will be some 3.4 million education, training, and library job openings due to growth and replacement through 2020. This will be driven by a variety of trends including the maturing of the 80+ million Millennials, the largest living American generation. As more of the Millennials enter their 30s and start having children, it will drive the need for teachers and other education-related positions in the next decade and beyond. As a category, these jobs have a mean annual wage of $46,000. But remember, this means that half of the people with these jobs earn more than $46,000 and half earn less, and some positions in teacher-friendly states can lead to total compensation of salary and benefits close to $100,000.

6. Health-and-wellness jobs will boom.

Driven by trends such as the aging of the population and the increasing focus people are putting on health and wellness, there will be 3.6 million job openings for healthcare practitioners and technicians due to growth and replacement through 2020. These occupations include doctors and surgeons ($166K median salary), pharmacists ($112K median), physical therapists ($76K median), radiology techs ($54K), athletic trainers ($42K median), and even veterinarians ($82K median).

The clear standout opportunity in this area is for registered nurses (RNs), which should have the most job growth of all occupations through 2020, with a projected 712,000 new jobs. Between these new positions, and ones opening up due to replacement needs, there will be 1.2 million total job openings for RNs through 2020. And nursing is increasingly becoming a job for both men and women. In 2011, men made up about 6 percent of all nurses, but it’s estimated that by 2020 they could make up 25 percent of all nurses in the United States.

There will also be some 2 million more jobs in healthcare support careers. These positions require lower levels of education than the practitioner and technician careers and include jobs like orderlies in hospitals and physical therapy assistants. Of these healthcare support careers, the fastest growing will be for home health aides. The number of home health aides will explode by some 70 percent over the next decade, leading to some 706,000 new jobs. This is evidence of the deep desire of Americans to “age in place” and remain independent and at home for as long as possible.

What does all of this information mean for your future?

The analysis above is just a quick overview of some of the occupations that should yield solid opportunities for students, young professionals, and career-changers in coming years.

If you’re a parent, projections like this can help you as you guide your children to think about their education and their future. Let them explore, try lots of things, but seed your conversations with them with projections like these, and bring a dose of reality to the discussion by showing them which occupations will be abundant and which may be more difficult to break into.

If their passion is in a sector or occupation that isn’t expected to see rapid job growth in the next decade, that’s okay. Encourage them to pursue their goals, but with data like this they can do it from a more informed perspective. For example, a teen interested in healthcare who is strong in the sciences will benefit from knowing that there are going to be roughly 35 times as many job openings for registered nurses as for veterinarians through 2020.

Encourage them to be a vet if that’s what they really want, and armed with this kind of data they’ll know the kind of competition they’re up against, which can be a strong motivator and spur them on to achieve this goal.

What are other ways this information will be useful for yourself and your kids?

  • Look for occupations that are going to add a lot of jobs in terms of raw numbers. This ensures you’re focused on big targets.
  • Look for areas that have high growth-rates. Focusing in on these fast-growing industries and occupations can help future-proof your (or your children’s) career and keep it in step with the changing 21st century economy.
  • Triangulate. Look at the raw numbers and growth rates, but don’t forget the personal angle. If you’re thinking of a career change, where does your passion lie … and what do you enjoy doing? Use the data to help guide and explore, but don’t force yourself (or your kids) into a career just because there are a lot of jobs to be had.
  • Explore the Occupational Outlook Handbook (OOH) yourself, and learn about job prospects, earnings, and what people actually do day-to-day in hundreds of careers. The 2014-15 edition was released in January 2014 and can be found at http://www.bls.gov/ooh.

Sources: C. Brett Lockard and Michael Wolf, “Occupational Employment Projections to 2020,” Monthly Labor Review, January 2012, www.bls.gov; Table 1.7, Employment Projections Program, US Department of Labor, US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Male Nursing Statistics; “An Economy that Works: Job Creation and America’s Future,” McKinsey & Co.


About Chris Carbone

Chris Carbone has worked in trend and foresight consulting for more than a decade, serving clients from Fortune 500 corporations and foreign and US government agencies. During this time he has researched and authored dozens of reports and scenarios on wide-ranging topics, from the future of leisure and play, to the future of urban mobility, to emerging consumer lifestyles in China.

He has been quoted in numerous publications including The Miami Herald, The Washington Post Express, and Fast Company, and appeared on “The CBS Early Show.” He currently oversees Innovaro’s two multi-client research projects—Global Lifestyles and Technology Foresight—and contributes to the firm’s custom engagements.

Carbone has an MBA from Johns Hopkins University with a concentration in marketing, and received his undergraduate degree in history from Gettysburg College. For more information, contact him by email.

Education is the ability to listen to almost anything without losing your temper or your self-confidence.”

– Robert Frost

Never never never never give up.”

– Winston Churchill

When you are asked if you can do a job, tell ‘em, ‘Certainly I can!’ Then get busy and find out how to do it.”

– Theodore Roosevelt

Treat the attainment of happiness in the same way an entrepreneur would approach building a business — with a vision, plan, goals, and a systematic approach.”

– Ted Leonsis

Whosoever knows how to fight well is not angry. Whosoever knows how to conquer enemies does not fight them.”

– Lao Tzu, Tao Te Ching

The music is all around us. All you have to do is listen.”

– August Rush

If your actions inspire others to dream more, learn more, do more and become more, you are a leader.”

– John Quincy Adams

We need to learn to set our course by the stars, not by the lights of every passing ship.”

– General Omar Bradley

Darkness cannot drive out darkness: only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate: only love can do that.”

– Martin Luther King Jr.

Practice kindness all day to everybody and you will realize you’re already in heaven now.”

– Jack Kerouac

Who cares if my glass is half empty or half full; I still have something to drink.”

– Optimism rules

It is easier to fight for one’s principles than to live up to them.”

– Alfred Adler

Why am I whispering when I have something to say?”

– Eve Ensler

A people who mean to be their Governors must arm themselves with the power which knowledge gives.”

– James Madison

Running that first shop taught me business is not financial science; it’s about trading.”

– Anita Roddick, founder, The Body Shop

The great use of life is to spend it on something that will outlast it.”

– William James

Great minds discuss ideas. Average minds discuss events. Small minds discuss people.”

– Eleanor Roosevelt

There is little success where there is little laughter.”

– Andrew Carnegie

He who wants to tear down a house must be prepared to rebuild it.”

– African Proverb

The quality of your life is directly related to the amount of uncertainty you can comfortably live with.”

– Tony Robbins

The gem cannot be polished without friction; nor man perfected without trials.”

– Chinese proverb

Women once had the goal of being Superwoman; I think most of us now simply strive to have a super day.”

– Author, Activist Lee Woodruff

Of course there is no formula for success except perhaps an unconditional acceptance of life and what it brings.”

– Arthur Rubinstein

You may ask me for anything you like except time.”

– Napoleon

Letting go of expectations is a ticket to peace. It allows us to ride over every crisis—small or large—like a beach ball on water.”

– Martha Beck

Outside of a dog, a book is man’s best friend. Inside of a dog it’s too dark to read.”

– Groucho Marx

A diamond is a lump of coal that stuck with it.”

– Norwegian proverb

The biggest flaw in our existing theory of capitalism lies in its misrepresentation of human nature.”

– Muhammad Yunus

A warrior cannot complain or regret anything. His life is an endless challenge, and challenges cannot possibly be good or bad. Challenges are simply challenges.”

– Carlos Castaneda

‎Excellence is to do a common thing in an uncommon way.”

– Booker T. Washington

If you would create something,
 you must be something.”

– Johann Wolfgang von Goethe

Do one thing every day that scares you.”

– Eleanor Roosevelt

Happiness is an attitude. We either make ourselves miserable, or happy and strong. The amount of work is the same.”

– Francesca Reigle

‎The biggest flaw in our existing theory of capitalism lies in its misrepresentation of human nature.”

– Muhammad Yunus

Do not be afraid of mistakes, providing you do not make the same one twice.”

– Eleanor Roosevelt

If my mind can conceive it, and my heart can believe it, I know I can achieve it.”

– Jesse Jackson

If you look at what you have in life, you’ll always have more.
 If you look at what you don’t have in life, you’ll never have enough.”

– Oprah Winfrey

If you do not tell the truth about yourself
, you cannot tell it about other people.”

– Virginia Woolf

Hold fast to dreams, for if dreams die, life is a broken-winged bird that cannot fly. Hold fast to dreams, for when dreams go, life is a barren field frozen with snow.”

– Langston Hughes

Do you have the desire to create something new; the strength of conviction to believe your creation will be successful, and the reservoir of energy necessary to thrust it into the marketplace?”

– Steven Schussler

You’ve got to be willing to crash and burn. If you’re afraid of failing, you won’t get very far.”

– Steve Jobs

A man is a success if he gets up in the morning and goes to bed at night and in between does what he wants to do.”

– Bob Dylan

The only dream worth having is to live while you’re alive and die only when you’re dead.”

– Arundhati Roy

Traveling is one way of lengthening life, at least in appearance.”

– Benjamin Franklin

The true entrepreneur is a doer, not a dreamer.”

– Nolan Bushnell, founder, Chuck E. Cheese's

By your stumbling the world is perfected.”

– Sri Aurobindo

When a dog runs at you, whistle for him.”

– Henry David Thoreau

If we all did the things we are capable of doing, we would literally astound ourselves.”

– Thomas Edison

An entrepreneur tends to bite off a little more than he can chew hoping he’ll quickly learn how to chew it.“


– Roy Ash, co-founder of Litton Industries

To follow, without halt, one aim: There’s the secret of success.”

– Anna Pavlova

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